Tropical Cyclone Update: Current Activity in the Indian and Pacific Oceans
Current tropical cyclone report highlights two active storms: TC 11S and TC 12S (Elvis) in the South Indian Ocean. TC 11S is weakening due to adverse conditions, whereas TC 12S is experiencing intensification but may transition to an extratropical low. Additionally, two disturbances, Invest 96P and Invest 99S, are being monitored for potential development.
Current Tropical Cyclone Activity as of January 30, 2025, reveals two active cyclones in the South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 11S and Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis). TC 11S is currently about 590 nautical miles from Diego Garcia, facing significant challenges due to easterly shear and dry air, which are hindering its strength. In contrast, TC 12S, located 619 nautical miles from Port Louis, Mauritius, is gaining strength despite facing increased shear conditions. Meanwhile, there are currently no cyclones in the Northeast or Central Pacific Oceans, with the seasons concluded until mid-2025.
Tropical Cyclone 11S struggles to maintain intensity, showing sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts reaching 45 knots, primarily influenced by a dry air intrusion and easterly shear. The cyclone’s structure has weakened, with convection displaced westward and a well-defined lower-level circulation center (LLCC) persisting under marginal conditions. Forecasts suggest it will persist over the next 72 hours, moving westward and potentially regaining strength as it approaches Madagascar in a more favorable environment.
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Elvis) exhibits stronger winds of 40 knots sustained, with gusts up to 50 knots and is showing a resurgence of convection around its LLCC. The cyclone is positioned over warm waters that support intensification, but increasing shear is anticipated to lead to gradual weakening. By around 48 hours, TC 12S is expected to undergo extratropical transition as it becomes embedded in broader atmospheric conditions, ultimately transforming into an extratropical low.
Two areas of interest in the Southwest Pacific include Invest 96P and Invest 99S. Invest 96P, approximately 194 NM southeast of Cairns, Australia, features a disorganized LLCC with weak convection, reflecting a young circulation still developing amidst favorable conditions. Conversely, Invest 99S, near Christmas Island, shows organized convection indicative of strengthening prospects, although both systems currently present a low potential for significant development in the next 24 hours.
The tracking paths of these cyclones reveal their potential impacts on surrounding regions, particularly with TC 11S’s trajectory projected to approach Mauritius and La Reunion. As these systems evolve, ongoing monitoring is critical to assess the changing meteorological conditions contributing to the cyclones’ developments and possible effects on coastal regions.
As of early 2025, two tropical cyclones are active in the South Indian Ocean, indicating significant meteorological activity. Understanding the dynamics of cyclones, such as wind shear and moisture levels, is crucial to predicting their behavior. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has ended, and meteorological agencies will provide special outlooks until the new season begins in mid-2025. Current reports focus on the strength and trajectories of active cyclones and new storm developments occurring in the Pacific regions.
The current tropical cyclone activity showcases ongoing meteorological phenomena in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with TC 11S and TC 12S (Elvis) commanding attention due to their developmental circumstances. Monitoring these systems is essential as they impact maritime and coastal areas. Additionally, Invest 96P and Invest 99S illustrate the potential for new cyclonic developments, reinforcing the need for vigilant observation during this period of dynamic weather activity.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
