Trump’s Presidency Poses Significant Dangers for Egypt’s Sisi

Egypt’s President Sisi faces escalating challenges as Trump returns to power, reigniting concerns over U.S. demands that threaten his regime’s stability. Trump’s insistence on reallocating Gaza refugees poses particular risks, while Sisi’s past attempts to leverage relations have largely backfired. Amidst increased Gulf complicity and complicated geopolitical dynamics, Sisi must navigate these challenges without compromising Egypt’s sovereignty.

The return of Donald Trump as U.S. President has sparked anxiety in Cairo as President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi processes the implications for his government. Although Trump previously regarded Sisi as his “favorite dictator,” the relationship is fraught, with Trump’s recent demands posing serious threats to Cairo’s stability and interests, especially regarding the Gaza refugee crisis, which could undermine Sisi’s regime.

Sisi’s administration, heavily reliant on external support, viewed Trump’s presidency as both beneficial and problematic. Despite Trump’s warm rhetoric, his unpredictable policies often thwarted Sisi’s strategic objectives. Shortly after Trump’s return, he pushed for Egypt and Jordan to resettle over a million Gaza refugees—a move that could destabilize Sisi’s grip on power.

In response, Egypt issued a stern statement to Trump’s demands, avoiding direct mention of him. This response resonated across social media, uniting both supporters and detractors of Sisi against Trump. The unified public sentiment stands in stark contrast to Sisi’s previous optimism towards his relationship with Trump eight years earlier.

Initially, Sisi viewed Trump’s election as a means to bolster his position in the Gulf region, illustrated by the controversial 2016 deal transferring the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia in exchange for significant aid. However, public opposition in Egypt stalled the process as critics labeled Sisi a “traitor” for trading sovereignty.

During Trump’s Riyadh summit in 2017, he pressured Sisi to adhere to the transfer of these islands more swiftly, which Sisi begrudgingly did, although Egypt has since endeavored to slow the process through bureaucratic hurdles. Trump’s administration provided limited support, neither enhancing financial aid nor facilitating major arms deals, but Sisi’s challenges have intensified with recent global crises.

The Biden administration took a more supportive stance towards Egypt, easing pressure on human rights issues and providing extensive financial aid amidst Egypt’s economic struggles. Biden’s administration facilitated an International Monetary Fund deal that provided a substantial financial boost, critical for Sisi’s regime during challenging times.

The potential revival of Trump’s controversial Middle East peace plan poses a significant threat to Sisi. The plan includes provisions demanding Egypt cede territory in Sinai to accommodate displaced Gazans, a major concern for the Egyptian military which sees this as a security threat and a political liability for Sisi.

Increased pressure from a Trump administration could reignite this contentious plan, forcing Sisi to navigate a precarious geopolitical landscape. Sisi’s administration is aware that Gulf nations, which have historically supported Egypt, might now be influenced to potentially back Trump’s demands amidst their evolving stance on regional displacement solutions.

Although regional foreign ministers publicly rejected Trump’s proposals, the fragile unity among them threatens to dissolve under further pressure, placing Sisi in a precarious position. He has been crafting strategies to thwart Trump’s ambitions while preserving Egypt’s sovereignty and stability, focusing on delaying or undermining the Sinai reallocation scheme.

Egypt’s military is reportedly increasing its presence in Sinai, which could breach the Camp David Accords, although initial moves were pressured by Israeli operations near Egypt’s border. This strategic maneuvering serves to shift the narrative from Trump’s demands to accusations of treaty violations by both parties.

Egypt has also turned to Turkey as a geopolitical ally, improving ties and military collaboration in defiance of Israeli policies. This partnership alters regional dynamics significantly, challenging the influence of traditional Gulf allies while ensuring Egypt is not wholly dependent on the U.S. or Israel for support.

Despite navigating a web of complex relationships and risks, Sisi’s strategy emphasizes obstruction and disruption to maintain leverage in negotiations with adversaries. However, his methods may inadvertently clash with Trump’s unpredictable nature, highlighting Sisi’s vulnerabilities as external pressures mount.

The article delves into the complexities of U.S.-Egypt relations, especially under the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency. It outlines President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s historical relationship with Trump, the implications for Egypt amidst geopolitical tensions, and how recent U.S. administrations’ policies have shaped Egypt’s domestic and foreign strategies, particularly regarding issues like the Gaza refugee crisis and economic dependence on external aid.

Sisi’s regime faces significant challenges with Trump’s return to power, marked by demands that threaten Egypt’s stability. The potential revival of contentious geopolitical agreements, coupled with changing Gulf state alliances and evolving U.S. relations, places Sisi in a precarious position. His survival strategy hinges on calculated obstruction to navigate the unpredictable landscape of North African and Middle Eastern politics, where missteps could have severe repercussions for his government.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com