GIEWS Country Brief: Eswatini’s Food Security Outlook for 2025

Eswatini’s 2025 cereal production looks positive due to favorable weather, though drought impacts from 2024 have raised maize import requirements. High maize meal prices pose additional challenges, contributing to escalating food insecurity. Government support for farmers continues, focusing on input access and irrigation investments.

The Kingdom of Eswatini is experiencing favorable weather conditions which are expected to enhance cereal crop production in 2025. The harvesting of maize, the primary cereal, is anticipated to begin in April, following a delayed planting season due to initial dry spells. However, subsequent rains improved soil moisture levels, and forecasts predict continued near-average rainfall until April, suggesting the potential for average to above-average maize yields this year.

In response to the anticipated needs of farmers, the government is reinforcing agricultural support through its Input Subsidy Programme, helping to provide essential inputs and services. Long-term strategies include investing in irrigation projects aimed at improving agricultural resilience against climate extremes and boosting overall productivity.

The region’s maize import requirements are projected to increase moderately due to a significant decline in local production, primarily caused by the El Niño-associated drought in 2024 which impacted yields. Current maize imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are surpassing previous levels. Additionally, Eswatini remains completely dependent on imports for its wheat needs, which are also expected to rise due to lower wholesale prices in South Africa, the primary source of cereals.

Maize meal prices reached unprecedented levels in November 2024, driven by the drought’s effect on South Africa’s domestic harvest and subsequent rises in wholesale costs. Prices saw a slight decrease by December 2024 but remained 12% higher compared to the same period the previous year. Conversely, wheat flour prices exhibited a yearly decrease, reflecting a price decline in South Africa.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis indicates that approximately 304,000 individuals in Eswatini face acute food insecurity, escalating 7% from the previous year. This food crisis is mainly attributed to decreased local food production from the drought, resulting in reduced household income and a diminished capacity to purchase food due to soaring maize prices.

In summary, Eswatini is navigating a challenging food security landscape in 2025. Favorable weather conditions may support maize production, yet the country grapples with high food prices and dependence on imports due to past drought impacts. Government initiatives aim to sustain agricultural resilience, while ongoing monitoring of food insecurity levels will be critical in addressing the needs of affected populations.

Original Source: reliefweb.int