Syria: The Aftermath of Assad’s Regime

The article discusses the end of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria, examining its brutal history and the implications of the regime’s collapse. It highlights the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the ideological shifts among the rebels. The article emphasizes the duality of the uprising’s social movements and the challenges of establishing a stable government post-Assad amid ongoing fragmentations and threats from various factions.

Millions of Syrians are celebrating the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, recognized as one of the most brutal dictatorships of the 21st century. The rapid advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Assad regime’s sudden collapse raise questions about HTS’s ideology, the future for minorities in Syria, and the country’s potential direction post-Assad.

Anand Gopal discusses the historical context leading to the Syrian revolution. The Baath Party’s takeover in the 1960s created a regime that provided social reforms but relied on brutal repression. Hafez al-Assad’s policies created a complex social compact, trading limited economic welfare for absolute political suppression, which unraveled under Bashar al-Assad’s neoliberal reforms, sparking the 2011 uprising.

Initially, Assad relied on a base of Alawites and the Sunni bourgeoisie in urban centers. However, as the civil unrest escalated, fears among minority communities like Christians were leveraged to maintain the regime’s support. By 2012, the regime’s social support shifted largely to these groups amid growing violence from the protesting demographics.

Gopal notes that political Islam began to flourish when the Assad regime stifled leftist movements for decades. As protesters initially sought a democratic state, two factions emerged: a working-class base demanding rights and a middle-class elite focused on political freedoms. Islamist groups, becoming more organized and capable of addressing the population’s needs, eventually dominated the revolution.

Assad’s regime had faced near collapse multiple times but managed to rally support from Hezbollah and Russia in past crises. Ultimately, its decay came from years of mismanagement, corruption, and the collapse of the economy. As loyalty weakened and external support diminished, particularly after Russia’s involvement shifted post-Ukraine, Assad’s regime experienced a rapid disintegration.

The collapse of Assad’s dictatorship suggests a potential turning point for Syria. Despite years of devastation and loss, the fall of one of the century’s most tyrannical regimes evokes both relief and hope for a better future. However, the challenge remains whether new governance can emerge from fragmented factions within the country.

While HTS presents itself positively, its history raises concerns regarding human rights and governance. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) poses additional threats, particularly to Kurdish populations. The geopolitical landscape, including Israel’s ongoing maneuvers, complicates the situation, indicating a turbulent path ahead for Syria as true political discourse begins to emerge post-Assad.

Assad’s regime has heavily shaped the current conflict dynamics in Syria, displaying the complex interplay of social structures and political ideologies. The fall of Assad offers a chance for change, yet numerous challenges remain as different factions vie for power and influence. The future stability of Syria hinges on the ability to unify diverse voices for a secure and democratic governanace, while managing internal conflicts and external threats.

Original Source: jacobin.com