Potential Cyclone Development off Western Australia This Week
A tropical low may form off WA’s coast this week, potentially becoming a cyclone named Courtney or Dianne. The cyclone season has been particularly active, with nine cyclones reported since December. Heavy rain, caused by an influx of moist air, is expected across Northern Australia, leading to potential flooding. The BOM forecasts above-average rainfall continuing into early April, raising the probability of more cyclone activity.
A tropical low is expected to form off the northern coast of Western Australia (WA) by Friday, potentially developing into a cyclone as it moves toward the coast. This development comes during a busy cyclone season, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reporting nine tropical cyclones since December, marking the highest tally in the last three years.
If the developing system reaches cyclone intensity, it will be named either Courtney or Dianne, following the alphabetical naming convention. The next fortnight will see an influx of humid air from the north, which is expected to bring heavy rain across Northern Australia, especially after Queensland recently experienced significant rainfall, with Townsville receiving 301 millimeters in just 24 hours.
The monsoon trough, which generates the majority of Australian tropical cyclones, is expected to return, leading to further rain across the Northern Territory (NT) and WA, particularly in the Kimberley region. The tropical activity could persist for weeks, promising above-average rain throughout the wet season and one of the most active cyclone seasons recorded.
The monsoon appears to have re-established over the northern Indian Ocean, resulting in a developing tropical low south of the Cocos Islands. While this system poses no threat to the Australian mainland, another tropical low is forecast to form off WA, initially developing over 500 kilometers offshore. As it approaches the coast, traveling over warm water (31 degrees Celsius), there is potential for cyclone formation.
Presently, the BOM indicates a 10% chance of intensification this weekend, with forecasts showing increased cyclone probabilities peaking at approximately 30% from Monday to Wednesday off the Pilbara coast. Current models suggest that the cyclone might track parallel to the coast, but forecasting uncertainties remain high.
Recent rainfall across northern Australia has already surpassed 500 millimeters in some regions, causing flooding along several rivers. The last week’s deluge has affected areas like Garradunga, which received 872 millimeters. As humid air continues to move inland, rain is anticipated across the NT, northern South Australia, and Queensland, with an average precipitation of over 100 millimeters expected moving into next week.
In the long term, modeling suggests that wet conditions observed over the next couple of weeks may extend into early April, with an 80% chance of above-median rainfall in parts of Northern Australia. April’s forecast also hints at increased cyclone activity, with the potential for three additional named storms, making this the busiest cyclone season in 19 years.
This upcoming week may see the development of a tropical low off WA’s coast, potentially evolving into a cyclone, reflecting the busiest cyclone season in nearly two decades. Following significant rains in Queensland and expected heavy precipitation across Northern Australia, the BOM forecasts above-average rain will persist into the following weeks, thereby enhancing cyclone activity well into the wet season.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
