Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops: Key Insights and Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Courtney, a Category 1 system, formed northwest of WA on March 26, becoming the eighth cyclone this season. Its forecast shows it moving westward, likely avoiding mainland impacts. The current cyclone season has seen intensified activity correlating with record warm sea temperatures and an active monsoon contributing to heavy rainfall risks across northern Australia. DTN APAC provides critical forecasting and alert systems related to tropical cyclones.
Tropical Cyclone Courtney, a Category 1 system, formed early Wednesday morning, March 26, making it the eighth tropical cyclone in the Australian season. Its development was slow, originating from a tropical low near Bali over the weekend and gradually moving west-southwest. By March 26, Courtney was approximately 900 kilometers northwest of Exmouth, as reported by the Bureau of Meteorology.
A forecast trajectory indicates that Tropical Cyclone Courtney will swiftly move westward, guided by a high-pressure ridge to the south. It is anticipated to pass within 500 kilometers to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Friday, but it is unlikely to directly affect the islands or the Australian mainland.
The 2024-25 Australian tropical cyclone season experienced a slow start after Tropical Cyclone Robyn in late November. Between mid-January and April, six out of eight tropical cyclones developed, with all reaching Category 3 or higher intensity, representing 75% of the season’s cyclones. This proportion is notably higher than the typical rate, including severe systems such as Zelia and Alfred, which together incurred costs exceeding $2 billion.
The seasonal spike in intense tropical cyclones coincided with unseasonably warm sea surface temperatures around Australia. Monthly sea temperatures reached record highs from October 2024 to February 2025, fueling cyclone activity. Visual data illustrates these summer sea surface temperature anomalies.
An active monsoon in northern Australia, spurred by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is heightening the risk of additional tropical systems. A mass of convective clouds off the northwest Kimberley coast is expected to organize into tropical low 28U within 24-36 hours, with a moderate chance of intensifying into a cyclone between Friday and Sunday.
Regardless of whether tropical low 28U intensifies, it is expected to produce substantial rainfall and flooding in the Kimberley region. Forecasting models predict rainfall totals ranging from 100-200mm, with some areas potentially exceeding 300-400mm, based on accumulated rainfall data.
As the MJO weakens and moves northeast in early April, the potential for significant cyclone development may diminish. The next MJO event is projected for later in April, aligning with the beginning of the dry season in northern Australia. Although cyclones can form year-round in the region, this weather pattern might signal the end of substantial rain for the season.
DTN APAC provides customized solutions for weather-driven business impacts due to severe weather events, including tropical cyclones. Their advanced alerting system monitors low-pressure developments, enabling businesses to prepare effectively. They offer precise weather intelligence on rainfall, winds, and potential storm surges, essential for decision-making to protect staff and operations. DTN APAC ensures constant support, aiding in critical decision processes related to severe weather.
Tropical Cyclone Courtney, now a Category 1 system, represents the eighth cyclone of the season and is expected to pass without significant impact on land. The current cyclone season has been notably intense, with a higher proportion of severe cyclones observed. The influence of unusually warm sea temperatures and monsoon activities contributes to ongoing risks of developing weather systems. DTN APAC offers vital weather services to assist businesses in navigating these challenges effectively.
Original Source: apac.dtn.com
