Projected Multi-Hazard Displacements in Somalia for Q2 2025

In Q2 of 2025, Somalia expects 124,249 displacements across 30 districts, with 11 in the top 15 affected. The five most impacted districts will be Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, driven predominantly by drought, but also by conflict, especially in Luuq and Afmadow.

In April-June 2025, Somalia will focus on 30 districts as part of its Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP). Among these, 11 districts rank within the top 15 that are expected to experience the most displacements, amounting to a total of 124,249 displacements during the quarter.

The highest displacements are anticipated in five primary districts: Banadir (39,251 displacements, a 4% increase), Baydhaba (21,053, a 3% increase), Luuq (13,098, a 12% increase), Kismaayo (12,862, a 7% increase), and Afmadow (9,425, a notable 19% increase). This cumulative projection for these districts represents 41% of all expected displacements.

Drought is expected to be the leading cause of displacement across these regions. However, in Luuq, conflict is anticipated to be responsible for 56% of displacements, while in Afmadow, 39% of movements are projected to originate from local conflict situations, highlighting the severe impact of both climate and conflict-induced factors on displacement.

The projected displacements in Somalia for Q2 2025 underscore the ongoing humanitarian crisis driven by drought and conflict. With a significant number of displacements concentrated in key districts, effective response strategies are critically needed to manage the implications on local populations. Structured humanitarian assistance will be essential in addressing the needs arising from these anticipated displacements.

Original Source: reliefweb.int