AccuWeather Predicts Above Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather predicts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with 13-18 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes expected. Key factors include warm ocean temperatures and the Bermuda-Azores High’s influence. Residents are advised to prepare and stay informed, referencing historical analogs to potential storm impacts in the Virgin Islands.
AccuWeather has projected a “near to above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, urging residents, particularly in the Virgin Islands, to prepare and stay informed. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and the report anticipates between 13 and 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher. Direct impacts on the United States are expected to range from 3 to 6.
Factors influencing this forecast include unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the location of the Bermuda-Azores High, and the emergence of tropical waves off the west African coast. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also plays a significant role. Current conditions favor La Niña, characterized by cooler equatorial Pacific waters, which leads to less wind shear and may enhance cyclone development.
A neutral ENSO phase, when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, may occur during parts of the season. This phase typically aligns with average ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions. While La Niña generally results in more active hurricane seasons due to decreased vertical wind shear, neutral phases can also yield significant activity, albeit to a lesser extent.
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, indicates that La Niña conditions may persist initially, transitioning to a neutral phase by summer. Although neutral conditions could maintain some activity, research suggests that La Niña years usually produce a greater number of storms.
DaSilva elaborates on how sea surface temperatures and the Bermuda-Azores High affect hurricane formation. Current sea surface temperatures are well above historical averages, especially in regions conducive to cyclone development. Warm waters generally promote the formation of low-pressure systems, crucial for creating and intensifying storms. This season, warm temperatures are expected to persist.
The Bermuda-Azores High impacts storm trajectories, with its position influencing whether storms head toward open waters or land. The high pressure can vary throughout the season, with expected patterns related to surface temperature anomalies. Current transitions from La Niña could prompt early storm development as early as May or June.
DaSilva reflects on historical analog years that bear similarities to the predicted conditions for 2025, noting notable years like 2017, which experienced devastating storms such as Irma and Maria. He emphasizes the importance of these historic analogs to understand potential impacts on vulnerable areas.
Residents are cautioned not to become complacent about hurricane threats, even after years without impact. A comprehensive hurricane preparedness plan is crucial for all residents in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Additionally, beachgoers should be aware of rip-current risks related to distant storms, even if not directly influencing the area.
Residents should stay updated via various sources for weather forecasts and emergency alerts leading up to the official start of hurricane season.
AccuWeather’s forecast for a near to above average hurricane season in 2025 underlines the importance of preparedness among residents in vulnerable regions like the Virgin Islands. Factors such as warm ocean temperatures, the Bermuda-Azores High’s position, and ENSO phases significantly influence storm activity. Historical patterns, such as those from 2017, suggest a heightened risk for impacts. All residents are urged to be prepared for potential cyclonic activity and stay informed about weather developments throughout the season.
Original Source: stcroixsource.com
