Anticipating the 2025 Hurricane Season: Early Indicators and Predictions
The 2025 hurricane season is anticipated to be less active than 2024, influenced by factors such as marine heat waves and the fading La Niña. Early assessments suggest a slightly above-average season, with critical variables in sea temperatures and the West African monsoon impacting storm activity.
As the 2025 hurricane season approaches in two months, early signs suggest it may not be as active as last year’s hyperactive season. Factors influencing this year’s forecast include an ongoing marine heat wave in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, which could intensify storms. However, the fading La Niña phenomenon traditionally associated with active hurricane seasons is worth noting.
Recently, five hurricanes made landfall in the contiguous United States, marking only the ninth season since 1851 with such a high count of storms reaching land. The previous year saw 18 full storms, characterized by an accumulation of cyclone energy.
One primary aspect affecting the upcoming hurricane season is the sea temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR). This region, where storms develop from August to October, is currently cooler when compared to last year, particularly near Africa, though it is still above average overall. This month has recorded the eighth warmest temperatures on record for March in the MDR.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry observes, “I certainly see some encouraging trends which suggest this upcoming season could be less active overall than recent hyperactive ones.” While the Atlantic remains warm, it is returning to more typical temperature levels compared to unprecedented warmth experienced previously.
The tropical Pacific Ocean is transitioning from a La Niña phase toward neutral conditions, which do not strongly influence hurricane activity. Unless El Niño conditions arise within the next few months, neutral conditions prevailing at the start of the season could allow for an active Atlantic hurricane season despite current climate variabilities.
Additionally, marine heat waves in the Caribbean Sea could lead to increased moisture and energy for tropical weather systems. Past hurricanes, such as Helene and Milton, derived their intensity from warm waters affected by these heat waves, leading to extreme rainfall events.
The West African monsoon is anticipated to be more active than normal from June to September, which typically generates consistent storm systems traveling into the Atlantic. However, unpredictability remains, as last year’s unusual monsoon behavior prevented many storms from forming effectively.
Forecasting the exact timing or location of a storm remains uncertain, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring and preparation. Current predictions indicate a slightly above-average hurricane season for 2025, contrasting the more intense patterns experienced last year. Lowry advises, “Emergency managers and disaster planners don’t alter their plans based on seasonal outlooks, and neither should you or your family. Prepare this year as you would any other year. It only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season where you live.”
Though the 2025 hurricane season appears less likely to be as hyperactive as last year, crucial factors such as marine heat waves, Pacific conditions, and the behavior of the West African monsoon will significantly shape the forecast. It’s essential to remember that even a less active season can be harmful, reinforcing the importance of consistent preparedness for all potential weather scenarios.
Original Source: www.washingtonpost.com
