Recent Developments in Sudan’s Civil War and Their Implications

Sudan’s civil war sees the army claiming key victories in Khartoum against the RSF, but fighting persists as both factions entrench their positions. The humanitarian crisis grows, with millions displaced and severe food shortages prevalent. Experts warn of potential fragmentation of the nation as the conflict continues, with no clear resolution in sight.

In Sudan’s ongoing civil war, the Sudanese army has achieved significant victories in Khartoum against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). With the conflict approaching its two-year mark, the army’s control of the capital aims to alter the momentum of the war. However, the fighting remains intense as both parties maintain separate territories, complicating any movement toward peace.

This month, the Sudanese army celebrated two crucial victories. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared Khartoum “free” after retaking control of the airport from the RSF, a pivotal location initially seized shortly after the conflict began in April 2023. This victory followed the army’s recapture of the presidential palace, symbolizing a turning point in its counteroffensive operations launched last September.

Securing Khartoum is pivotal for the army as it establishes a stronger military and political position. Control of the airport disrupts RSF supply chains and enhances the army’s influence among regional leaders, which may affect international perceptions of the conflict. Although al-Burhan has refused to pursue peace talks, the army’s advances provide potential leverage in any future discussions.

Despite recent gains, the prospect of a swift resolution to the conflict remains low. Rooted in disputes over military integration, both the army and RSF continue to control extensive territories while engaging in fierce battles. Ongoing clashes extend to Darfur, Kordofan, and Gezira, with both factions inflicting civilian casualties through aerial attacks, particularly in urban centers.

The humanitarian toll of the conflict is severe, creating one of the worst crises globally. Over 12 million people are displaced, with many relying on inadequate resources in neighboring countries. A UN report highlights that nearly 25 million face extreme food shortages, including 600,000 at risk of starvation. Aid distribution issues persist as both factions hinder assistance to adversarial-controlled areas, with accusations of looting against the RSF.

Looking ahead, experts warn that Sudan’s civil war could lead to the country’s partition or fragmentation, similar to South Sudan’s 2011 secession. Recent developments include the RSF signing a charter for a breakaway regime, raising alarm among international stakeholders. The anticipated outcome is a lengthy war of attrition as neither side shows readiness to compromise amid calls for negotiations.

In summary, Sudan’s civil war continues to unfold with significant military victories for the Sudanese army in Khartoum, yet the path to peace remains obstructed by entrenched conflicts and territorial control. The humanitarian crisis intensifies, putting millions at risk as both sides pursue their interests. Experts caution that the conflict could lead to severe fragmentation of the nation, echoing historical precedents and emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic engagement.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com