Somalia’s Food Security Challenges and Projections for 2025

Somalia’s 2024 cereal production faced dramatic reductions due to adverse weather and insufficient rains, crucial elements affecting food security. Pastoral areas are experiencing water shortages, impacting livestock health. Current cereal prices are unstable, viewing both increases and decreases regionally. A significant rise in food insecurity is projected by mid-2025 due to these persistent challenges, with millions affected.

Food Security Snapshot in Somalia
This article outlines the current food security situation in Somalia, highlighting key issues affecting the nation’s agricultural and pastoral sectors. In 2024, a substantial reduction in cereal production resulted primarily from unfavorable weather conditions and below-average rains.

Cereal Production Overview
The secondary deyr harvest, critical for central and southern regions, was completed in February 2025, accounting for approximately 40% of annual cereal output. The preceding deyr rainy season experienced below-average rainfall and early season dryness, disrupting planting and germination. Although some improvement occurred in November with average rainfall, early December rains ceased prematurely, hampering crop maturation. The overall cereal production for 2024 is estimated at 127,000 tonnes, an 18% decline from the prior five-year average.

Impact on Pastoral Areas
Pastoral areas faced severe challenges due to significantly below-average deyr rains, resulting in a lack of pasture and water. This shortage is detrimental to livestock health, affecting animal condition, conception rates, and milk production until the ensuing 2025 gu rains, which are forecasted to bring some improvements.

Cereal Prices and Market Trends
In January 2025, cereal prices exhibited mixed changes influenced by local harvest performances and market disruptions due to insecurity. In the Lower Shabelle Region, maize prices fell by 10%, while in the Bay Region’s Baidoa Market, sorghum prices increased by 25%. Year-on-year trends showed sorghum prices up by 40%, yet livestock-to-cereal terms of trade for pastoralists worsened over the last year, with a goat now equating to about 48 kg of sorghum compared to 68 kg in January 2024.

Future Food Security Projections
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis indicated that around 3.4 million people faced severe acute food insecurity from January to March 2025. This figure is expected to rise to 4.6 million by mid-2025 due to ongoing unfavorable weather, reduced humanitarian assistance, and increased population displacement driven by drought and conflict.

Conclusion
The food security outlook for Somalia remains grim, with reduced cereal production, deteriorating livestock conditions, and mixed price patterns contributing to significant food insecurity. Urgent measures and close monitoring of weather patterns are essential to mitigate the impending crisis. Key metrics reveal that the challenges stem from environmental factors, market conditions, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis affecting vulnerable populations.

In summary, Somalia’s food security situation is under severe threat due to unfavorable weather conditions leading to decreased cereal production, exacerbated by limited pastoral resources and mixed market trends. The anticipated deterioration in food security, with millions at risk of acute hunger, highlights the need for immediate attention to humanitarian aid and resource management. Mitigating these challenges is critical to stabilize the food security landscape.

Original Source: reliefweb.int