India Expected to Experience Normal Monsoon Season This Year

India is expected to have a normal southwest monsoon this season, with 70-75% of annual rainfall occurring during June-September. The absence of El Niño conditions supports this forecast by various weather agencies. Accurate predictions are critical for the agricultural sector, particularly for crops reliant on monsoon rains.

According to a weather expert, India is projected to experience a “normal” southwest monsoon from June to September 2025, largely due to the absence of El Niño conditions. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist from the University of Reading, highlighted that forecasts from the UK Met Office and other agencies point toward average to above-average rainfall this monsoon season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its initial monsoon predictions shortly. If the forecasts from foreign agencies are accurate, 2025 will mark the second consecutive year of normal monsoon rainfall following a year of below-normal precipitation in 2023. During this period, India typically receives about 70-75% of its annual rainfall, crucial for crop health and water supply.

Deoras indicated that the absence of El Niño impacts is a significant factor in the forecast of a normal monsoon. However, he noted the need for careful monitoring of other weather patterns to assess the timing of the monsoon’s onset in Kerala and its advance across the country.

The IMD has stated there is a 75% likelihood of transitioning to neutral El Niño conditions by April 2025, which is expected to enhance the chances of a healthy monsoon season. IMD’s Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, confirmed that no El Niño conditions are expected this monsoon season.

Additionally, the IMD anticipates that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions will persist during the upcoming monsoon. In 2024, India recorded 8% more rainfall than the average forecasted at the season’s start, while 2023 saw below-normal, erratic rainfall despite initial predictions for a normal season.

Nearly half of India’s agricultural land relies on monsoon rains for growing kharif crops like paddy and pulses. Furthermore, adequate rainfall is essential for soil moisture required for planting rabi crops such as wheat. The southwest monsoon usually begins over Kerala by June 1 and typically covers the country by the first week of July, gradually withdrawing from northwest India by mid-September and concluding by October 15.

In summary, India is projected to experience a normal southwest monsoon season in 2025 due to the lack of El Niño conditions and positive forecasts from various weather agencies. This is vital for agricultural productivity, impacting both kharif and rabi crops. Upcoming predictions from the IMD will provide further clarity on the monsoon’s onset and progression, which are crucial for monitoring agricultural practices in the region.

Original Source: www.financialexpress.com