Syria After al-Assad: The Competing Visions of Turkiye and Israel

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad has shifted power dynamics in Syria, with Turkiye and Israel vying for influence. Turkiye aims to suppress Kurdish autonomy through military operations, while Israel seeks to curtail Iranian presence. The new Syrian government under Ahmed al-Sharaa faces the challenge of balancing relations with both nations amidst complex regional dynamics and external pressures.

The removal of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, signifies a pivotal moment for Syria, opening up a revised chapter in the nation’s history. With Turkiye and Israel looking to assert their influence, the competing visions of both nations are transforming Syria’s political landscape and affecting Middle Eastern stability for the foreseeable future.

Turkiye has been integral to the Syrian conflict’s progression since 2011, initially aligning with opposition groups against al-Assad, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Over time, its strategy has shifted towards countering the emergence of a Kurdish power along its border, leading to intensified military actions aimed at dismantling Kurdish self-governance. This has included operations like the Manbij offensive in December 2024 resulting in the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army seizing significant territories from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The Turkish military operations are extensive, with over 150 drone strikes against SDF positions since December 2024, targeting key infrastructure. These military campaigns highlight Turkiye’s resolve to eliminate Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, supported by growing troop presence and a strategy of demographic alteration through the resettlement of pro-Turkish families. Furthermore, a reported restructuring of the Syrian military underway aligns factions with Turkish interests, indicating a long-term commitment to maintain a strong foothold in the region.

In contrast, Israel is focused on curtailing Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s presence in Syria, particularly in light of the potential power vacuum following al-Assad’s exit. The Israel Air Force (IAF) has launched over 80 airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah positions, disrupting critical logistics networks linked to these forces. Israeli officials contend that their operations have severely affected Hezbollah’s operational capacity within Syria, even as diplomatic relations with Damascus remain absent.

The administration of President Ahmed al-Sharaa now faces the complex challenge of balancing relationships with both Turkiye and Israel. While Turkiye’s encroachment has raised buttressed security concerns for Damascus, there are indications of a new pragmatism emerging in Syrian policy toward Israel. Mediators are reportedly working to facilitate discreet communications, but any direct diplomatic actions remain hindered by ongoing Israeli airstrikes and demands regarding Iranian military infrastructure.

Despite both Israel and Turkiye not being in direct conflict, their increasingly opposing agendas complicate the situation in Syria. Turkiye’s support for various opposition factions often contradicts Israeli interests, with both nations conducting operations that undermine each other’s objectives. This precarious state is exacerbated by growing intelligence operations aimed at monitoring and countering each other’s strategies in the region.

Syria stands at a crossroads after al-Assad’s ouster, amidst a landscape populated by external forces including the US, Iran, and Russia, all of which complicate Syria’s political environment. The Gulf States are also adapting their positions; engaging with the new Syrian administration to offset Turkiye and Iran’s growing dominance. However, their strategic interests will be key in shaping Syria’s future trajectory amidst ongoing regional realignments.

Syria’s future is marked by complex geopolitical dynamics following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. Turkiye aims to secure its borders by targeting Kurdish forces, while Israel focuses on countering Iranian influence in the vacuum left by Assad. The new Syrian administration led by Ahmed al-Sharaa faces challenges in navigating relations with both powers, aiming for stability amidst the evolving landscape. With external influences from the US, Iran, Russia, and the Gulf States, Syria’s path forward remains uncertain yet crucial for regional stability.

Original Source: shafaq.com