Assessing Syria’s Transition: Challenges and Opportunities After Assad
In an interview discussing Syria’s transition post-Assad, analyst Ghassan Ibrahim emphasized cautious optimism amidst significant challenges such as poverty, sanctions, and institutional collapse. He highlighted the importance of strategic foreign relationships, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while warning of the complexities surrounding Turkiye and Iran’s influences. Ibrahim underscored the need for lifted sanctions to aid governance and prevent unrest among the populace.
As Syria moves away from the Assad dynasty’s long rule, analyst Ghassan Ibrahim expressed cautious optimism about the transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. He highlighted that while challenges such as institutional collapse, poverty, and economic sanctions persist, there is hope for recovery. The economic situation remains dire, with over 90% of Syrians living below the poverty line and essential infrastructure largely non-functional. Notably, Syria’s natural resources are largely untapped due to decades of mismanagement and a significant brain drain.
Though the absence of large-scale sectarian violence post-Assad is considered a key achievement, issues like recent violence in the coastal region continue to pose risks. Ibrahim suggests this period holds promise but demands considerable effort for stability. The strategic foreign policy moves by President Al-Sharaa, beginning with a visit to Saudi Arabia, signal an intent to forge alliances focusing on modernization and regional stability. He expressed the critical role the UAE could play in reintegrating Syria back into the Arab world.
Ibrahim indicated that while cooperation with Turkiye could stabilize northern Syria, it poses risks of reigniting regional rivalries, especially concerning Kurdish issues and relations with Israel. Despite increasing Israeli airstrikes in southern Syria, he noted the new government is avoiding confrontations with Israel, preferring diplomatic approaches as opposed to military action.
The Iranian influence remains a concern as Ibrahim warned of their destabilizing presence in Syria. He argued for a refreshed government strategy to normalize relations, urging Iran to cease its aggressive posturing within Syrian borders. However, he emphasized that the long-standing sanctions from the US and Europe continue to hinder the new government’s capabilities, often harming ordinary citizens instead. He warned that without changes, public discontent could lead to unrest.
With regard to domestic issues, the Al-Sharaa administration is criticized for its lack of inclusivity in government formation. Ibrahim mentioned the delicate balance of including various ethnic groups while ensuring cohesive governance. Furthermore, he said that Syria aims to mediate between Turkiye and Kurdish-led forces to prevent proxy conflicts.
Maintaining relations with Russia as a pragmatic partner, Ibrahim sees potential for Russia to facilitate dialogues with Israel. He dismissed claims that Syria could become a base for attacks on Israel, highlighting a shift in language from the Assad era towards more diplomatic terms. He concluded with an optimistic vision for Syria as a nation moving towards stability, development, and normalization within the region.
The transitional phase for Syria presents both substantial challenges and opportunities. While cautious optimism exists regarding the new administration’s potential for recovery and regional reintegration, the underlying economic and social issues—including poverty and infrastructural collapse—remain pressing. Moving forward, diplomatic relations, both with regional powers and former adversaries like Israel, could play a crucial role in Syria’s stabilization and long-term recovery, contingent upon overcoming entrenched challenges, particularly sanctions.
Original Source: www.arabnews.pk
