What Ukraine’s Drone Attack on Russia Means for Peace Talks
Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on Russian airfields have heightened tensions just before peace talks in Istanbul. The brief discussions yielded no significant progress, mirroring previous failures to achieve a ceasefire. Both sides hold firm positions on crucial issues, complicating potential resolutions.
Ukraine carried out a massive drone attack on Russian airfields this past Sunday, right before the second round of peace talks in Istanbul. The talks which were hoped to forge some consensus ended disappointingly after just an hour. Both sides agreed to a soldier swap but achieved no tangible progress toward peace. This was sharply contrasted to the first round of talks in mid-May, which also concluded without a ceasefire agreement.
This drone attack stands out as the first instance of such a significant number of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian air bases. Reports indicate that at least five airfields, strategically deep within Russian territory—including locations in the Far East—were affected. Observers note that if the attacked facilities include nuclear-related equipment or strategic assets, the implications could be severe.
So far, Ukraine has avoided targeting critical Russian nuclear facilities, partly because it seems the Russians aren’t likely to use nuclear arms unless faced with NATO involvement. Thus, the targeting of such facilities would make Russia anxious. They are likely to investigate whether this was an impulsive act by Ukraine, possibly orchestrated by President Zelenskyy to draw international support, or if NATO played a role in. An angle to ponder: drones don’t operate alone, and reliable navigation info—which Ukraine lacks—might have come from U.S. satellites.
In the past month, both nations have ramped up their drone offensives, with Ukrainian attempts to hit Moscow during Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9 being particularly notable, showcasing an even bolder approach. The fact that Ukraine struck airfields in Irkutsk, far from the main conflict zone, caught many by surprise. Their drones were launched from trucks designed for long hauls, suggesting tactical ingenuity.
The huge operational depth of the Ukrainian strike signals an escalation that Russia may not have anticipated. Still, despite this worrying development, President Putin’s domestic support remains robust, and the military momentum seems firmly in Russia’s favor. From a strategic point of view, Moscow may feel anxious, yet politically, Putin might not feel the threat as grave.
Currently, there exists a stalemate over ceasefire terms. Ukraine demands a month-long ceasefire before negotiations can advance, a stance supported by most Western nations, except the U.S. Russia, for its part, is open to a ceasefire only if there’s a clear path towards a lasting resolution. They are gaining ground, albeit slowly, and are loath to grant Ukraine a chance to regroup and replenish its dwindling resources.
Russia cites the war’s root causes—such as Ukraine’s neutral stance and the rights of Russian speakers in the country—as non-negotiable issues. They argue that without a chance of resolving these fundamental matters, a ceasefire is futile. Thus far, they have suggested the two countries outline peace plans ahead of a comparison meeting on June 2.
As for the ongoing negotiations, they remain in the early stages with secondary officials from both sides involved. Both nations are under pressure from the U.S. for a swift resolution, but both are also tangled in their own sets of red lines. The Russian team, led by former Cultural Minister Vladimir Medinsky, includes security and foreign affairs officials, while Ukraine’s defense minister Rustem Umerov heads their delegation.
Yet, these delegations lack the authority to make final decisions. Instead, their role is more about narrowing differences and crafting a document that will eventually be submitted to Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy.
Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, commented on the specifics and implications of the events leading to and resulting from this attack.
In summary, the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields signify a stark escalation in the ongoing conflict and complicate peace talks ahead. The immediate result of the drone strike raised deeper questions about Russia’s security, particularly regarding its nuclear facilities. As both sides struggle with fundamental disagreements, the chances of reaching a ceasefire or meaningful negotiations remain slim, all while external pressures persist. The situation is fluid, and future discussions could shape the trajectory of the conflict.
Original Source: indianexpress.com
