Rising Cyclone Frequency in Mozambique: A New Norm?

Mozambique has faced three severe cyclones in three months, raising concerns about increased storm frequency becoming a new normal. Aid organizations are struggling to cope with the devastation, and experts emphasize the need for enhanced preparedness and adaptation strategies. The warming waters of the Mozambique Channel may fuel future cyclones, necessitating significant investments in resilience to protect vulnerable populations.

In Mozambique, the recent clustering of three severe cyclones over three months has heightened concerns about their frequency becoming a new norm. These cyclones have devastated one of the world’s poorest regions, leading to thousands of people affected and raising questions among experts about the sustainability of aid and recovery efforts.

The series of cyclones has significantly burdened aid organizations, with countless homes obliterated. Sebastien Langlade, chief cyclone forecaster at the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, described the situation as a disastrous pattern unfolding. The cyclone season traditionally spans from November through April, and started with Cyclone Chido, which struck in December, resulting in 120 fatalities and extensive destruction in Mayotte.

January saw the impact of Cyclone Dikeledi, which claimed at least five lives. Then came Cyclone Jude, which hit just last week, bringing winds up to 195 km/h and resulting in 16 deaths and the destruction of over 40,000 homes. The United Nations reported that approximately 420,000 individuals across Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique were affected.

Jude and Dikeledi landed almost simultaneously in Nampula province, about 1,400 kilometers north of Maputo, while Chido hit further up the coast. Naemi Heita, from the Red Cross in Maputo, highlighted the challenges communities face, stating, “It’s double tragedy. These are communities that did not have an opportunity to recover from the first cyclone.”

The region is highly vulnerable and ill-equipped to handle such disasters, according to UNICEF’s Guy Taylor. By the time Jude made landfall, the river basins in Nampula were nearly full, exacerbating the situation. The repeated cyclones have stretched the resources of international aid organizations thin, as supplies diminish with each subsequent storm.

Heita expressed concerns regarding the rising intensity and frequency of these disasters, advocating for increased preparedness investments. The central region of Mozambique has experienced formidable storms, with Cyclone Idai in 2019 recorded as particularly lethal, claiming over 600 lives.

Despite this season producing fewer fatalities than previous cyclones, experts note a marked uptick in frequency. Since 2019, Mozambique has faced eight cyclones, a significant increase from the historical average of six to seven cyclonic events per decade. Langlade points to the warming waters in the Mozambique Channel as a potential factor, as warmer seas are conducive to cyclone formation.

This season, eight out of eleven tropical storms in the southwestern Indian Ocean reached cyclone intensity, a ratio significantly higher than the normal 50%. Despite ongoing research, establishing if this is a long-term climate phenomenon or a reaction to climate change is complex. Taylor emphasized the critical need for adaptation measures; for instance, UNICEF has constructed over 1,000 cyclone-resistant classrooms in Mozambique to enhance resilience against these storms.

Investing in preparedness can save lives and reduce infrastructural damage, highlighting the urgent need for robust disaster-preparedness strategies in the face of escalating risks.

The recent cyclones in Mozambique illustrate a troubling trend of increasing frequency and intensity, stressing the need for urgent action. Aid organizations and experts are calling for enhanced preparedness and adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of these disasters. As climate patterns shift, it is critical for vulnerable regions like Mozambique to invest in resilience to ensure communities can withstand future cyclonic impacts.

Original Source: www.france24.com