NOAA Predicts Above Average Activity in Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA forecasts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13-19 named storms with 3-5 major hurricanes. The predictions are influenced by warmer ocean temperatures and increased activity from the West African Monsoon. Despite staff shortages in local offices, the National Hurricane Center asserts it is adequately resourced for the upcoming season. Preparing supplies now is crucial.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised alarms about an anticipated active Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting more storms than usual. Ken Graham, a prominent meteorologist and director of the National Weather Service, stressed, “We’re really looking at an above normal season,” specifying the expectation of 13 to 19 named storms. Typically, storms earn names when their winds reach 39 mph.

Out of the estimated storms, six to 10 are predicted to spiral into hurricanes, defined as those with winds over 74 mph. Among these, NOAA expects about three to five could reach major hurricane status, classified as Category 3 or above. It’s important to note, though, their predictions stop short of detailing landfall locations or potential hurricane hits on U.S. coastlines.

Now’s the time to get ready, Graham advised, so folks ought to gather supplies and assemble emergency kits ahead of time. “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together,” he noted. Lack of supply lines right now makes it even more pressing to prepare—”No lines for supplies today. No lines for gas, no lines for plywood, no lines for water.”

Graham attributes the heightened forecast partially to the rising ocean temperatures, a trend that aligns with climate change effects. “The warmer ocean temperatures are really consistent with us being in a more active season,” he remarked during a news conference.

Another contributing factor involves expected increases in activity from the West African Monsoon, which traditionally creates storms off Africa’s coastline that travel across the Atlantic toward the U.S. However, this news comes as NOAA’s National Weather Service grapples with staffing shortages following workforce cuts initiated during the previous administration.

Earlier this year, nearly 600 staff members departed the National Weather Service, leading to gaps in staffing. The National Hurricane Center, however, asserts it has the necessary resources to handle the upcoming season. Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA, reassured, “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.”

Yet, the narrative at the local forecasting offices remains worrisome due to numerous vacancies, which could affect predictions about local impacts like flooding and rainfall after a hurricane hits. “I’m going to make sure that our offices, when there’s a hurricane threat, have the resources they need to ensure every warning goes out,” Graham emphasized.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, peaking during late summer and early fall. The NOAA forecast aligns broadly with predictions from independent research groups, which on average foresee around eight Atlantic hurricanes in 2025.

Last year’s prediction by NOAA was for an exceptionally busy season, which delivered 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, including five that made landfall in the U.S. Hurricane Helene, for instance, struck Florida’s Gulf Coast and resulted in catastrophic inland flooding throughout the East Coast.

Hurricane Milton also came ashore as a Category 3 storm, bringing havoc with 46 tornadoes. Both events highlighted a growing trend known as rapid intensification, where storms escalate their winds significantly as they approach land. This makes future storms potentially more serious, particularly given studies showing a 29% increase in the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical cyclones from 2001 to 2020, compared to earlier decades.

In summary, NOAA projects an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a notable increase in storm activity influenced by warming ocean temperatures and the West African Monsoon. While the National Hurricane Center claims it’s staffed and prepared, a widespread staffing shortage across local offices could complicate local forecasts and preparedness. The hurricane season is soon upon us, and individuals are advised to make preparations now before uncertainty strikes.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com