Young Population Believe BNP to Get 39% of Votes, Jamaat 21% in National Polls: Sanem Survey
- Young population predicts BNP winning with 38.76% votes.
- Jamaat-e-Islami expected to receive 21.45% of votes.
- NCP expected to bag 15.84% based on survey findings.
- Survey indicates potential for Islamist party alliances.
- 40.89% of youth are moderately optimistic about elections.
Survey Highlights Young Voter Preferences in Bangladesh Politics
The South Asian Network on Economic Modeling, or Sanem, has released an interesting new survey that captures the views of Young people in Bangladesh about the country’s political dynamics ahead of the upcoming polls. According to the findings, a significant portion of this youthful demographic believes that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will win 38.76% of the votes in the 13th national election. Respondents in the survey also predict that Jamaat-e-Islami will secure around 21.45% of the votes. The National Citizen Party (NCP), a relatively new player in the political scene which came to prominence after last year’s upheaval against the Awami League (AL), is expected to garner about 15.84% of the total votes. It’s noteworthy how sentiments are shifting in this group, evidently leaning toward alternatives to traditional parties.
Youthful Sentiment Highlights Political Alliances and Ban
Part of this survey, aptly titled “Youth in Transition: Navigating Jobs, Education, and Changing Political Scenario Post July Movement,” also points to the potential strength of an alliance among Islamist parties, which could propose a formidable challenge to the BNP. Together, the combined support for NCP, Jamaat, and other Islamist parties could create a significant political force, especially as this alliance has become a hot discussion topic. Interestingly, the survey found that, if permitted to participate, the previously ruling Awami League might get about 15.02% of the votes—a figure that’s particularly striking given the current political climate. Since the interim government has enforced a ban on Awami League activities, it raises questions about how this situation will unfold as elections approach.
Optimism and Voting Intentions of Young Electorate
Interestingly, the survey revealed that as of now, 40.89% of those surveyed expressed moderate optimism about free and fair elections, while about 27.91% said they were very optimistic. Some 11.93% mentioned they were fully optimistic, whereas 13.23% felt slightly optimistic. Notably, 6.04% of the youth were not optimistic at all about the electoral situation. The willingness to participate is high, as 76.78% of respondents indicated they plan to vote in the upcoming election scheduled for the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, a small percentage, about 4.14%, disclosed that they do not plan on voting, with another portion still undecided. Alongside this, 13.98% reported they are currently ineligible to vote, which reflects ongoing issues with voter registration and accessibility for young citizens.
The Sanem survey sheds light on changing political attitudes among Bangladesh’s youth, demonstrating a significant inclination towards the BNP while also acknowledging potential alliances forming around alternative political players. With optimism levels varying, there’s a palpable hunger for a fair electoral process, and a notable majority appears set to vote. As the elections approach, the dynamic between these parties—and the effects of the current political bans—will be critical to follow.
