Is the Conflict in Sudan Approaching Resolution?
Sudan’s conflict may be nearing a turning point as the Sudanese Armed Forces recapture key strategic areas from the Rapid Support Forces. Amidst widespread violence and a humanitarian crisis, sanctions have been placed on military leaders. However, the prospect of peace hinges on international cooperation and the cessation of arms supplies, alongside addressing the dire humanitarian needs of millions displaced by the war.
Recent advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) indicate a potential shift in the ongoing conflict in Sudan. General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s return to Khartoum signals a new phase, especially following the SAF’s recapture of the vital city of Wad Madani from the RSF, a loss that highlighted a decline in public confidence towards the military.
The conflict intensified in December 2023 when the RSF took control of Wad Madani, devastating agriculture and worsening food insecurity across the region. Hager Ali, a researcher, noted that this action not only led to immediate hunger crises but also contributed to a lasting decline in agricultural productivity in what was once Sudan’s breadbasket.
The RSF’s retreat to the western Darfur region marks a potential shift in battlegrounds, with El Fasher becoming critical. Osman Mirghani, a Sudanese journalist, emphasizes that this location could determine the conflict’s conclusion, especially under dire humanitarian conditions, with millions displaced and facing famine.
Civilians are suffering immensely as the conflict rages on, with thousands killed and millions displaced since the war began in April 2023. The split between Burhan and former deputy Hemedti escalated into widespread violence, significantly impacting the civilian population and leading to a historic humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
Warnings from UN officials indicate the situation’s gravity, especially after recent atrocities committed by the RSF, including attacks on civilians at markets and hospitals. There is an ongoing investigation into these incidents, as footage allegedly shows SAF members executing civilians in a disturbing display of violence.
In response to the escalating conflict, the US implemented significant sanctions targeting both military leaders for human rights violations and genocide accusations. Analyst Leena Badri highlighted that these sanctions could weaken both commanders’ positions and disrupt their access to international support and funding.
Despite sanctions on the RSF and SAF, the conflict persists primarily due to the lack of coordinated international pressure to halt arms supplies from regional backers. The future of US involvement remains ambiguous under President Trump, though his past actions have shown reluctance to push for accountability, complicating efforts to resolve the crisis.
The grim trajectory of the war suggests that true resolution may require multifaceted international interventions and an immediate halt to military supplies to allow peace prospects to materialize, especially as the war’s anniversary approaches.
The Sudan conflict originated from a power struggle between SAF chief General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and his former deputy General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) over military integration issues. Since the outbreak of violence in April 2023, the country has seen mass displacement and significant humanitarian crises, prompting international attention and interventions. The RSF’s gains and violent tactics further emboldened the conflict, leaving civilians vulnerable amidst the ongoing turmoil.
The situation in Sudan remains precarious as military advancements by the SAF clash with the enduring hold of the RSF in regions like Darfur. Humanitarian crises intensify, with millions affected by violence and food insecurity. While sanctions have been imposed, the effectiveness of international pressure is uncertain, suggesting that a comprehensive approach is essential for achieving a lasting resolution to the conflict. The path to peace will require sustained international engagement and support for the Sudanese populace displaced by violence.
Original Source: www.dw.com
