YR4 Asteroid Now Unlikely to Impact Earth, Sparing Sudan from Threat

The YR4 asteroid, initially perceived as a potential threat to Earth and specifically Sudan, is now on a course that suggests it will miss our planet. NASA revised the possible impact probability from 3.1 percent to 0.28 percent, bringing significant relief. Historical impacts in Sudan, such as the 2008 TC3 meteor event, further emphasize the importance of asteroid monitoring.

The YR4 asteroid, initially believed to pose a high risk of impacting Earth, is now on a trajectory that suggests it will miss our planet. This comes as a relief to many, especially for countries like Sudan, which has a history of asteroid impacts. NASA had previously projected a potential impact date of December 22, 2032.

Earlier this month, scientists calculated a 3.1 percent chance that the 40 to 100 meter asteroid could hit Earth. However, new assessments have lowered this risk significantly to 0.28 percent. Meanwhile, the probability of YR4 hitting the Moon has slightly increased from 0.8 to 1 percent.

If YR4 were to collide with Earth, it would release energy comparable to 15 million tons of TNT. Possible impact zones include northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and sub-Saharan Africa, with Sudan being a notable candidate due to its geographic history.

Sudan experienced a notable asteroid event in 2008 when the 4.1-meter-wide 2008 TC3 asteroid exploded 37 kilometers above the region, scattering fragments across the Nubian Desert. A meteoroid is defined as a fragment of an asteroid or comet that travels through space and ignites upon entering Earth’s atmosphere, resulting in a meteor, which can further fragment into smaller pieces.

The Almahata Sitta meteorites, which struck Sudan, marked a milestone in asteroid impact prediction, being the first successful forecast of such an event. Although scientists miscalculated the impact site, the meteorite sparked significant interest due to its precious contents, including thousands of micro-diamonds. This rock was believed to originate from a lost planet that once orbited Earth millions of years ago.

The YR4 asteroid, once a potential threat to Earth and specifically Sudan, is now assessed to have minimal chances of impact. The dramatic reduction in risk underscores the dynamic nature of asteroid tracking. Historical evidence highlights Sudan’s past experiences with asteroids, signifying the importance of continued monitoring and research into near-Earth objects.

Original Source: www.newarab.com