Sudan’s Military Advances and the Ongoing Conflict Dynamics

Sudan’s war, nearing two years, is seeing military advances targeting Khartoum against the RSF. Recent territorial gains come as the RSF announces a parallel government. Despite the military’s progress, the conflict appears set to continue, with both sides unwilling to engage in meaningful peace talks, raising the risk of further fragmentation of Sudan.

Sudan’s military is now advancing to regain control of the capital, Khartoum, marking a critical shift in the ongoing conflict with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after nearly two years of intense fighting. This conflict has resulted in significant casualties and displacement, affecting millions of people, and has led to severe humanitarian crises across the country. With the military making territorial gains, particularly in the Greater Khartoum area, they are now targeting key districts previously held by the RSF, such as the presidential palace and vital ministries.

The RSF has countered this military momentum by announcing plans to create a parallel government alongside its ongoing military activities. Although many anticipate prolonged hostilities, the military’s recent successes, described as reversing RSF momentum, have raised questions about the conflict’s future trajectory. Analysts suggest that even if the military achieves control in Khartoum, the outcome could lead to a fragmented Sudan dominated by rival powers.

The ongoing struggle can be traced back to 2023, when conflict erupted following a failed transition to democratic governance, originally meant to follow the 2019 uprising against the former regime. Tensions escalated between military leaders who once cooperated to undermine civilian rule, resulting in widespread violence and humanitarian emergencies, with over 20,000 reported deaths and millions displaced.

Notably, the military has made significant headway, recapturing districts and breaking the RSF’s long-held sieges. However, the RSF remains entrenched in western Sudan, particularly in Darfur, and has announced renewed military operations in contested regions. The violence has led to the suspension of critical humanitarian efforts and raised fears of further famine in affected areas.

As military chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo remain steadfast in their positions, prospects for peace negotiations are dim. The creation of dual governments, as suggested by both leaders, could solidify Sudan’s division along military and RSF-controlled lines, perpetuating instability.

The RSF’s vision for a secular state contrasts sharply with the military’s aspirations, leading to a turbulent political landscape. The RSF’s charter, which aims to maintain Sudan’s territorial integrity while catering to various community identities, underscores ongoing divisions within Sudan’s political factions, complicating the conflict further.

The international community has expressed concern over the RSF’s tactics, with sanctions imposed against its leadership for alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, internal dissent against the military’s ties to previous regimes continues to complicate the pro-democracy movement, which is split between factions supporting the RSF and those aligned with the military.

Despite the ongoing violence, there are indications that some displaced individuals are tentatively returning to their homes in regions where the military has regained control. Reports highlight the dire humanitarian conditions, including widespread shortages of essentials such as food and medical care, which continue to hamper relief efforts in Sudan.

In summary, the conflict in Sudan remains complex, with recent military advances by the Sudanese forces signaling a potential shift in power dynamics. However, a definitive end to hostilities seems unlikely, given the establishment of a rival government by the RSF and the continued humanitarian crises. As the situation evolves, both military strategies and international responses will play crucial roles in shaping the future of Sudan.

Original Source: www.wral.com