Climate Change Intensifies, Weakening La Niña’s Effectiveness

Climate scientists warn that climate change is becoming more severe, diminishing La Niña’s cooling effects. The India Meteorological Department forecasts an early summer with above-normal temperatures. Historical temperature records are being set, and future potential El Niño events are expected to intensify. The need for adaptive measures against extreme heat is critical as the impacts of climate change become more pronounced.

Climate scientists have noted that climate change is increasingly becoming more severe, rendering the cooling effects of La Niña less effective in the future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an early summer marked by above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwaves, following the warmest February in India since 1901 along with notably low rainfall. Human-induced climate change is creating a ‘new normal’ characterized by warmer winters and shortened springs, highlighting the importance of understanding year-to-year weather variability.

Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at IIT Bombay, emphasized that this year’s unusually dry winter reflects the diminishing natural cooling processes from rainfall. Additionally, Raghu Murtugudde from IIT Bombay discussed how global temperature anomalies during winter months are influenced by jet streams, which are powerful winds in the upper atmosphere that affect weather patterns. Mondal further explained that shifts in these winds during the pre-monsoon period correlate with the characteristics of heatwaves, such as duration and intensity.

Vimal Mishra, a professor at IIT Gandhinagar, explained the role of El Niño and La Niña as phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affecting global weather significantly. Under El Niño conditions, warmer springs and post-winter temperatures are expected, while La Niña typically leads to cooler days. These oscillations typically last between 2 to 7 years, transitioning between warm and cold phases.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently indicated that a weak La Niña that emerged in late 2024 is likely to be short-lived, predicting a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions developing by mid-2025. Between March 2024 and February 2025, temperatures are projected to rise significantly, comprising 0.71 degrees Celsius above the average established from 1990 to 2020.

Murtugudde remarked on the unusual climate patterns resulting from warming that began in 2023. While future studies anticipate that El Niño events will become more frequent and severe, the current and impending climate change poses challenges. The summer of 2024 recorded the highest number of heatwave days in India in 14 years, signaling that, even in ENSO-neutral conditions, heatwaves cannot be disregarded as harsh, warm conditions are already emerging in March.

In conclusion, the WMO’s forecast emphasizes that the impacts of climate change will dominate future weather patterns, indicating that while El Niño may exacerbate issues, La Niña will likely be less beneficial. This calls for urgent attention to the evolving climate dynamics and their potential effects on global weather systems and local conditions.

In summary, climate change is intensifying, leading to a scenario where La Niña’s cooling effects may diminish. With the IMD predicting earlier summer heat and extreme conditions, significant shifts in weather patterns attributed to climate change are evident. Future El Niño events are expected to become more intense, while current trends show that even under neutral conditions, the severity of heatwaves will likely persist, indicating a growing need for preparedness and adaptive strategies.

Original Source: www.theweek.in