Increasing Extreme Rainfall Events in Kenya: Climate Change Implications
A recent study warns of increasing heavy rainfall events in Kenya driven by climate change, indicating major implications for agriculture and infrastructure. Seasonal forecasts predict erratic rainfall patterns, with risks of flooding and drought persisting in different regions. Authorities are urged to enhance preparedness and disaster response to mitigate these risks.
Kenya is predicted to face increased heavy rainfall events due to rising global temperatures, according to a recent climate study published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. This research from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) indicates that extreme precipitation is becoming more common, which poses risks to agriculture, infrastructure, and local communities. The study emphasizes the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the rise in rainfall extremes, suggesting a direct correlation that is alarming for the region’s future.
Forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) align with this study. They have predicted erratic and extreme rainfall for the March-April-May (MAM) season of 2025. KMD reports anticipate average to above-average rainfall in western Kenya, Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while northeastern areas and the coast may see below-average rainfall. This is expected to result in a late and irregular onset of rains.
The ICPAC findings echo these concerns, particularly noting below-normal rainfall in Somalia, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, and areas of Ethiopia and Eritrea. These below-average conditions heighten the risk of water shortages and prolonged dry spells, further complicating the region’s climate challenges.
The climate study reveals that while some regions may face rainfall deficits, the nature of precipitation is changing; when it occurs, it will likely come in intense bursts. Such sudden heavy rainfall can further complicate agricultural efforts and impact livestock production significantly. The study warns that these changes will have profound implications for food security in Kenya.
Flash floods resulting from these extreme rainfall events may damage infrastructure, displace communities, and increase the spread of waterborne diseases. The research also highlights model projections indicating significant precipitation events around critical areas like Lake Victoria and the Ethiopian highlands, with worsening conditions under high-emission scenarios.
Kenya’s history shows a pattern of alternating drought and flooding, leading to severe economic and humanitarian crises. Recent floods in 2024 notably displaced thousands in Nairobi and Kisumu, which raises concerns that climate change could intensify these cycles. Although some regions will see increased rainfall, areas like parts of Somalia and northern Kenya may experience a declining risk of drought, contrasting with expected intensification elsewhere, like Tanzania.
Warmer-than-average conditions are predicted across Kenya, especially in coastal and northern regions, as reported by KMD. These rising temperatures combined with intense rainfall could increase evaporation rates, complicating the overall weather patterns. To address these challenges, authorities are stressing the importance of early preparedness and improved strategies for disaster response in light of these shifting rainfall patterns.
In summary, Kenya faces increasing heavy rainfall and extreme precipitation events, with substantial risks for agriculture and community resilience. Forecasters predict erratic weather patterns for the upcoming MAM season, compounded by warming temperatures leading to complex interactions between rainfall and drought. The study emphasizes the need for improved disaster preparedness and response strategies to cope with this evolving climate scenario and its potential impacts.
Original Source: www.kenyans.co.ke
